Sunday, March 2, 2014

Putin's next move in the Ukraine.?

I am somewhat of a history buff and cutter through bullshit.
All this talk of preserving territorial integrity is amusing ,particularly when it comes from any of the present or former superpowers.Not one of them ever did nor now does respect this notion,being governed by the concept of national interest instead and the desire for revenge.
Putin is a patriot.He looks after  his own people.Unlike any of the Irish leaders since the Revolution  here who did ,despite the rhetoric, stand idly by and  let the Nationalist  population of the North stew in its own juices until  they took up arms themselves.
Now  the EU is not a Nation and I don't see any constituent country taking up arms to repel the Russians from the land of their nearest and strategically important neighbours.
Those MPs and EU ministers.particularly the Baroness, who interfered and took sides  when the street protests began should apologise for their gross interference in the matter to the peoples of the EU and the population of the Ukraine among whose Western  oriented peoples they raised unrealistic expectations of practical support.
Put bluntly I don't see the UK government welcoming into the UK the street protesters from Kiev who kick started this chaos.If for no other reason but that they might start the same antics in England.Nor do I see any other EU member doing the same,with the possible exception of Germany,who after all did employ many Ukrainians to do their dirty work during the Second  World War..
The USA is far enough away to do what it likes but NATO ,which has a European leadership and is EU based has the same conundrum as the EU.
Russia cannot be treated as a misbehaving non entity in  the general scheme of things.If the US and Russian bulls square up there can be but one winner.And Europe would be a massive loser no matter who wins.The USA is far enough away to withdraw at any convenient time.Europe ,if it gets involved,cannot pull out until its load is shot.That's the conundrum.
Putin must hugely  curse Krusckev for giving the Crimeae away.I'd say any statutes of him still extant will be soon destroyed.
Having acceded to the request from the Crimea to take it over  Putin must now determine just how far he will go to protect his countrymen in the remainder of the  Ukraine.He will have further requests.
My guess is that having started he must finish .
History indicates that he will take into the Russian ambit maybe two thirds of the rest of the country ,allowing those who wish for the West to emigrate to their third  and those of a Russian bent to emigrate to his sphere of influence.
Thea alternative would seem to be all out war and possibly the modern day version of Armageddon.
Unthinkable.

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